Yemen teeters on brink of civil war

Hundreds of thousands of people, predominantly youth, took to the streets throughout Yemen on May 28 to demand President Ali Abdullah Saleh leave. Earlier, there had been heavy fighting between government forces and tribally based militias, joined by dissident factions of the army. (Miami Herald, May 28)

In February, after the victories of protests in Tunisia and Egypt, protesters took over the plaza in front of the university in Sana. In conjunction with a very broad and legal opposition coalition called the Joint Meeting Parties, these protesters are demanding an end to the corruption that has enriched regime insiders. They condemn the bad schools, hospitals and roads as well as the skyrocketing price of food and of clean water. They demand jobs, especially for college and high-school graduates. (Middle East Review, May 3)

The JMP includes socialists, especially from the al-Hakar movement based in southern Yemen; Sunni Islamists and other conservatives affiliated with the party known as Islah; and partisans of Nasserist, Baathist and liberal platforms. Islah has both very socially conservative members, including some deemed “terrorist” by the U.S. State Department, and moderates such as Tawakkul Karman, who is the founder of the nongovernmental organization Women Journalists Without Chains.

However, the U.S. State Department and some of the big business media have made a lot of noise about al Qaida, calling it the main “security” issue in Yemen.

This area contains the world’s biggest source of oil. More than 3 million barrels of oil a day flow past Yemen’s port of Aden. (Reuters, May 28) Yet Yemen is a desperately poor country; 40 percent of its 23.5 million people live on less than $2 a day. It is also the country with the largest population on the Arabian Peninsula.

On Jan. 11, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton made a brief visit to Yemen where she held a “town hall” meeting. Clinton “was asked by a member of the Yemeni Parliament who leads an anticorruption committee how the United States could tolerate Mr. Saleh’s strongman rule, given that it had helped to make Yemen a haven for terrorist groups.”

Clinton replied: “We support an inclusive government. We see that Yemen is going through a transition. And you’re right: it could go one way or the other. It could go the right way or the wrong way.” (New York Times, Jan. 11)

Though Saleh has been an inconsistent ally, sometimes giving the OK for drone attacks, sometimes rebuffing U.S. requests, the U.S. has consistently given his government significant amounts of aid. It has refrained from public criticism of the killing of some 300 unarmed protesters and the wounding of thousands more since protests began in February.

U.S. pressures Saleh to step down

The U.S. tone has changed recently. After many failed mediation attempts, mainly from the Gulf Cooperation Council, to arrive at an agreement for Saleh to leave power, Obama released a statement May 25 calling on Saleh to “move immediately” to transfer power. (AFP)

Saleh still clings to power. However, the forces of Sadiq al-Ahmar, the head of Yemen’s largest tribe, the Hashid, successfully fought off a government attack on his headquarters in Sana that began May 23. They seized some government offices and forced a ceasefire by May 27.

Saleh survived the defection in March of Gen. Ali Muhsin, who ordered troops under his command to protect demonstrators in Sana under attack by the president’s guard. (MER, May 3) Muhsin was the military commander who ran campaigns against Houthi insurgents in northern Yemen and southerners in the civil war of 1993-94.

According to the French Press Agency, 15 unarmed protesters were killed and 120 were wounded after a protest at Freedom Square in Taiz on May 29. Thousands of protesters have been camping in the square since January demanding Saleh’s departure. A Reuters video of the protest showed a group of women in burqas chanting against Saleh.

A number of press reports establish that a group of Islamic holy warriors have seized Zinjibar to “liberate” it from “the agents of the Americans.” In a statement to the May 30 Yemen Post, the JMP claimed the Saleh government was behind the militants. “[Saleh] uses these tactics to show the international community what risks Yemen would pass through if he leaves office.”

Gen. Abdullah Ali Aleiwa, a former defense minister who no longer supports Saleh, released a plea to Yemeni soldiers: “We call on you not to follow orders to confront other army units or the people.” (Reuters, May 30)

The situation in Yemen is extremely fluid, with four main blocs competing: the Saleh government, dissident forces in the army under Gen. Ali Muhsin, tribal militias commanded by Sadiq al-Ahmar, and the JMP. The last coalition is united around Saleh’s departure, a fairer political system and a more equitable economy. The United States and Saudi Arabia do not want to see an outcome in which progressives and socialists play a major role.