Who stands to gain, who to lose?

Who stands to gain and who stands to lose from the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

The U.S. government seized upon this assassination to increase pressure upon Syria and Iraq. Indirectly blaming Syria for the assassination, the U.S. withdrew its ambassador from Damascus, then tried to force Syrian troops to leave Lebanon. Washington next renewed attacks against Lebanon's respected revolutionary group, Hezbollah, which is growing in popularity. The U.S. demanded that Hezbollah disarm, and then called on European governments to declare Hezbollah a "terrorist" organization.

Who was Rafik Hariri? He was the richest man in Lebanon, worth $4 billion, and the prime minister on and off since 1992. Hariri's corporation, Solidere, re-built down town Beirut. This city was reduced to rubble after years of civil war and a 1982 Israeli invasion. Under Hariri's watch, inter national banks returned to Beirut and the tourist industry revived. After his assas sination, foreign investors are considering pulling back and rich Gulf state tourists are wondering if they are safe in Beirut.

While Hariri had disagreements with Syria at the time of his death, according to Dawn/The Guardian News Service of the UK, "Hariri was not fundamentally opposed to the Syrian presence in Lebanon. Indeed, he was a key architect of the agreements that formalized and legitimized Syria's hegemony." (Feb. 19)

The forces in Lebanon now demanding that Syria leave appear to be a minority at this point. But they are powerful and given a great deal of attention in the U.S. media. They could bring down the government of Lebanon. They are the far right and openly fascist forces, based in the Maronite Christian community, allied with the forces of Walid Jumblatt, based in the Druze community.

Israel has armed and supported the fascists for decades. In 1982, fascists slaughtered thousands of Palestinians in West Beirut's Sabra and Shatilla refugee camps. They are currently assaulting Syrian workers in Lebanon and burning their tents.

In contrast, Hezbollah, which represents a much larger segment of the Leban ese population, has an anti-imperialist, anti-Israel intervention alliance with Syria. Mohammad Raad, leader of Hez bol lah's 12-seat coalition in Lebanon's 128-member parliament, explained that the Syrians "benefit from the availability of an armed resistance in Lebanon, and we benefit from their need for armed resistance."

He added, "But we are not fighting in the interests of others. We are fighting for our own cause." (Washington Post, Dec. 19, 2004)

What is Hezbollah?

Hezbollah, or Party of God, is a revolutionary organization based in Lebanon's Shia community, the largest and poorest community in Lebanon. Hezbollah gained tremendous prestige in Lebanon and throughout the Arab world for leading popular Lebanese militias to victory against Israel in 2000, ending Israel's 22-year occupation of southern Lebanon. Syria and Iran are Hezbollah's main international supporters. Hezbollah receives material support from Iran via Syria.

Hezbollah, feared by Lebanon's pro-imperialist forces, is being watched closely in Washington. In an article entitled "Lebanese wary of a rising Hezbollah," the Dec. 19 Washington Post said that Hezbollah virtually runs its own government in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is armed and has drone planes. It has a television station, runs schools and hospitals, and provides jobs and social services. Hezbollah has begun expanding into other areas of Lebanon.

Hariri governed Lebanon by rewarding his friends with lucrative contracts and tax cuts, amid charges of patronage and corruption. While a quarter of the people of Lebanon live below the poverty line, Hariri cut social services and public sector wages. (BBC News, Feb. 19)

In marked contrast, Hezbollah is known for its clean and fair government, says the Post, which calls Hezbollah's agenda "populist." Explaining that it is filling a public need left by the Lebanese's government inability to provide sufficient health care for the region, Hezbollah is expanding its 50-hospital network into northern Lebanon. Hezbollah does not just serve the Shiite community. For instance, last year, its hospital in the south treated 50,000 Lebanese of all denominations.

Hezbollah has struck a non-sectarian tone in other areas of Lebanese life. For example, it prevented reprisals against southern Lebanon Christians who worked inside Israel during the occupation. Hezbollah is reaching out to Lebanon's mostly Sunni Palestinians, offering to improve the water system and build health clinics in the Ain Helweh camp.

Lebanon is a tiny country of only 4 million people, but its strategic location makes it important to imperialism. Will the Bush administration permit Hezbollah to continue to grow in influence, or will the Pentagon or the Israeli military intervene yet again in Lebanon? Two U.S. invasions, in 1958 and 1982, extacted a heavy toll on the Lebanese. The 1982 Israeli invasion and occupation of Lebanon left tens of thousands dead.

Despite this punishment, the Lebanese people continue to mount powerful popular struggles. Lebanon bears close watching by anti-war forces in the U.S.